Public risk management. A flight safety analysis must demonstrate that a launch operator will, for each launch, control the risk to the public from hazards associated with normal and malfunctioning launch vehicle flight. The analysis must employ risk assessment, hazard isolation, or a combination of risk assessment and partial isolation of the hazards, to demonstrate control of the risk to the public.

Risk assessment. When demonstrating control of risk through risk assessment, the analysis must demonstrate that any risk to the public satisfies the public risk criteria of § 417.107(b). The analysis must account for the variability associated with:

Each source of a hazard during flight;

Normal flight and each failure response mode of the launch vehicle;

Each external and launch vehicle flight environment;

Populations potentially exposed to the flight; and

The performance of any flight safety system, including time delays associated with the system.

Hazard isolation. When demonstrating control of risk through hazard isolation, the analysis must establish the geographical areas from which the public must be excluded during flight and any operational controls needed to isolate all hazards from the public.

Combination of risk assessment and partial isolation of hazards. When demonstrating control of risk through a combination of risk assessment and partial isolation of the hazards from the public, the analysis must demonstrate that the residual public risk due to any hazard not isolated from the public under paragraph (a)(2) of this section satisfies the public risk criteria of § 417.107(b).

Dependent analyses. Because some analyses required by this subpart are inherently dependent on one another, the data output of any one analysis must be compatible in form and content with the data input requirements of any other analysis that depends on that output. Figure 417.205-1 illustrates the flight safety analyses that might be performed for a launch flown with a flight safety system and the typical dependencies that might exist among the analyses.